Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 123,934
2 South Dakota 115,954
3 Utah 93,922
4 Wisconsin 93,537
5 Iowa 93,424
6 Rhode Island 92,144
7 Tennessee 91,925
8 Nebraska 90,383
9 Kansas 84,239
10 Idaho 83,140
11 Arizona 82,726
12 Indiana 82,530
13 Arkansas 82,463
14 Oklahoma 81,018
15 Wyoming 80,598
16 Illinois 80,494
17 Alabama 80,414
18 Montana 80,155
19 Nevada 79,254
20 Mississippi 78,512
21 Minnesota 76,602
22 Louisiana 73,445
23 New Mexico 73,184
24 Missouri 72,556
25 Alaska 67,481
26 Florida 67,476
27 Georgia 67,133
28 Kentucky 67,031
29 South Carolina 66,846
30 California 66,810
31 Texas 66,771
32 Ohio 65,240
33 Delaware 65,213
34 New Jersey 64,372
35 Colorado 62,073
36 Massachusetts 60,895
37 Connecticut 57,777
38 North Carolina 57,702
39 New York 56,632
40 Michigan 55,840
41 Pennsylvania 55,400
42 West Virginia 54,626
43 Maryland 49,585
44 Virginia 45,447
45 District of Columbia 44,076
46 New Hampshire 36,884
47 Puerto Rico 36,222
48 Washington 35,869
49 Oregon 29,126
50 Maine 21,132
51 Hawaii 16,169
52 Vermont 13,812

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 1,395
2 Utah 1,264
3 Tennessee 1,238
4 Kansas 1,225
5 Rhode Island 1,183
6 Kentucky 1,114
7 Arkansas 1,101
8 Massachusetts 1,089
9 California 1,079
10 Louisiana 1,059
11 South Carolina 1,042
12 Oklahoma 1,037
13 Alabama 998
14 Indiana 966
15 Georgia 942
16 Mississippi 920
17 New York 910
18 Nevada 908
19 Florida 886
20 West Virginia 880
21 North Carolina 854
22 Connecticut 843
23 Texas 826
24 Delaware 822
25 New Mexico 788
26 Ohio 787
27 Pennsylvania 767
28 New Jersey 763
29 Wisconsin 728
30 Iowa 682
31 Missouri 677
32 Illinois 670
33 Montana 667
34 Idaho 642
35 Virginia 624
36 Wyoming 620
37 Nebraska 610
38 South Dakota 566
39 Maryland 543
40 New Hampshire 529
41 Colorado 519
42 Alaska 484
43 Maine 456
44 District of Columbia 444
45 Michigan 427
46 North Dakota 413
47 Washington 412
48 Minnesota 395
49 Vermont 310
50 Puerto Rico 286
51 Oregon 263
52 Hawaii 163

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,224
2 New York 1,996
3 Massachusetts 1,883
4 Rhode Island 1,808
5 North Dakota 1,784
6 Connecticut 1,773
7 South Dakota 1,758
8 Mississippi 1,713
9 Louisiana 1,684
10 Illinois 1,508
11 Michigan 1,392
12 Arizona 1,369
13 Pennsylvania 1,361
14 Indiana 1,320
15 Arkansas 1,314
16 Iowa 1,307
17 New Mexico 1,293
18 District of Columbia 1,146
19 Nevada 1,106
20 South Carolina 1,106
21 Tennessee 1,105
22 Kansas 1,080
23 Alabama 1,058
24 Florida 1,055
25 Texas 1,038
26 Georgia 1,032
27 Maryland 1,028
28 Missouri 1,022
29 Minnesota 1,008
30 Delaware 982
31 Montana 981
32 Wisconsin 949
33 Nebraska 928
34 Colorado 904
35 West Virginia 867
36 Idaho 853
37 Wyoming 844
38 Ohio 816
39 California 739
40 Kentucky 714
41 North Carolina 703
42 Oklahoma 683
43 New Hampshire 622
44 Virginia 622
45 Puerto Rico 498
46 Washington 494
47 Utah 431
48 Oregon 376
49 Maine 316
50 Alaska 292
51 Vermont 250
52 Hawaii 212

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 28
2 Kansas 28
3 Pennsylvania 21
4 Alabama 20
5 West Virginia 20
6 New Mexico 18
7 Nevada 17
8 Tennessee 17
9 South Dakota 16
10 Arkansas 14
11 California 14
12 Illinois 14
13 Louisiana 14
14 Maine 14
15 Mississippi 14
16 New Jersey 14
17 Rhode Island 14
18 Wyoming 14
19 Iowa 13
20 Montana 13
21 New Hampshire 13
22 Texas 13
23 Connecticut 12
24 Massachusetts 12
25 South Carolina 12
26 Indiana 11
27 Oklahoma 11
28 Michigan 10
29 Nebraska 10
30 North Dakota 10
31 Idaho 9
32 Minnesota 9
33 New York 9
34 North Carolina 9
35 Wisconsin 9
36 Colorado 8
37 Missouri 8
38 Ohio 8
39 Florida 7
40 Georgia 7
41 Kentucky 7
42 Maryland 7
43 Utah 7
44 Washington 6
45 Virginia 4
46 Delaware 3
47 District of Columbia 3
48 Hawaii 3
49 Oregon 3
50 Puerto Rico 3
51 Vermont 3
52 Alaska 2

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 277,677 1 99
Dewey South Dakota 225,390 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 222,052 3 99
Norton Kansas 221,787 4 99
Bent Colorado 219,114 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 107,367 276 91
Richland South Carolina 69,167 1601 49
York South Carolina 61,588 1976 37
Orange California 60,398 2028 35
Pierce Washington 33,128 2848 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,213 4 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,154 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 885 1837 41
Richland South Carolina 844 1896 39
York South Carolina 673 2193 30
Orange California 629 2252 28
Pierce Washington 428 2589 17

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons